Methodology for assessing the export potential of a grain cluster

The article develops a methodology for assessing the export potential of a grain cluster. The methodology is based on the integration of five functional blocks, which include production and resource indicators, logistics and infrastructure indicators, market and economic conjuncture indicators, institutional indicators, and financial and investment indicators. For quantitative measurement, an integral indicator is proposed. It is calculated by normalizing partial indicators and then summing them up with weighting coefficients. The testing of the developed tools on the materials of the Krasnodar Territory allowed classifying the region as high export potential. The analysis revealed key limitations, including significant depreciation of fixed assets, a high proportion of elevator facilities operated in excess of standard deadlines, as well as insufficient diversification of export markets. Scenario modelling results showed that implementing an optimistic scenario, which involves expanding port facilities, modernising the elevator infrastructure, and increasing the supply of mineral fertilizers, could significantly boost the integral indicator by 2030. The study also justifies the possibility of reinvesting a portion of export revenues into the development of agritourism as a promising avenue for diversifying the rural economy. This approach can help reduce the dependence of rural areas on price fluctuations in the global grain market.

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